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In
The News
New Software Figures
Risks of ‘Exotic’ Derivatives
by Matt Rees
from
Bloomberg Business News, August 16, 1995
A former research
head at Bankers Trust Co., one of the biggest firms in the derivatives
business, is selling computer software designed to help money managers
and corporations figure the value of the trickiest of these financial
contracts.
The software, sold
by a Princeton, New Jersey, firm called Savvysoft, is aimed at the
derivatives traders that don’t have the money to hire teams of Ph.D.’s
to write programs that can accurately value their holdings of so-called
"exotic" derivatives, said Rich Tanenbaum, Savvysoft’s president.
"Corporations don’t
really have the expertise to look at exotics and figure out what price
they should be buying or selling them at," said Tanenbaum, who spent
eight years at the unit of Bankers Trust New York Corp. and was head
of derivatives research when he left in 1989.
Without the enormous
resources of big Wall Street forms and banks, "it’s very hard to build
that up from scratch," said Tanenbaum, who founded Savvysoft when
he left Bankers Trust.
Corporations use
derivatives mostly to guard against the risk of swings in currencies
or interest rates that can eat into their bottom line. Money managers
use them to leverage their bets - and potentially boost their profits.
Difficult
To Assess
Many of these derivatives
users bought the most complicated kinds of derivatives, known as exotics,
in the last several years. Exotics often are composed of several different
kinds of options, which makes their payoffs hard to predict without
intricate computer technology. One type of exotic derivative, for
example, is a quanto option, in which payments might be based on U.S.
interest rates, but actual payouts are in Swiss francs.
Their risks are
just as difficult to assess. That’s particularly worrisome for corporations
and money managers concerned about the big losses suffered on derivatives
over the last 18 months. Investors from Proctor & Gamble Co. to Barings
Plc lost out when the value of their derivatives plunged.
Those losses spurred
a boom at the software firms that sell programs for pricing derivatives,
as corporations scampered to figure the value of their portfolios.
Few of these firms, though, offer software that can price the most
complicated derivatives, which makes Tanenbaum think he’s onto a winner.
"Dealers’ business
has slowed down, because people are scared of the losses," Tanenbaum
said. But for the software firms, "the risk business is booming."
There are more
than 40 companies in the $250 million-a-year derivatives software
business, mostly in the U.S. or Britain. Though most are small operations
with commensurately modest revenues, several firms have built multi-million
dollar businesses catering to the biggest Wall Street firms and banks.
‘Biggest
Problem’
While some of these
outfits sell programs that can be used to calculate the value of exotic
options, none are cheap enough for most of the corporations and money
managers that use derivatives, said Charles Wurtz, managing director
of Xticket Systems.
"The biggest problem
that end-users have is they don’t have 50 P.D.’s in physics working
for them, figuring out what this stuff should be worth," said Wurtz,
whose own company recently began selling software that big firms can
use to figure prices for exotic derivatives.
"If this software
really does what (Tanenbaum) says it does, it’ll allow buyers to assess
what the Street is telling them," Wurtz said, "and there’s nothing
out there like that right now."
Savvysoft’s program
costs between $1,125 and $2,225 as a flat fee for each user at a corporation
or money manager, though the price drops as the number of copies ordered
rises. That compares with prices that sometimes rise into the millions
of dollars for high-end systems bought by the big derivative firms
from Renaissance Software and Infinity International Financial Technology.
Unlike many of
the more expensive computer programs, Savvysoft’s system is designed
to handle the thousands of contingencies that must be assessed to
get an accurate price for an exotic option, Tanenbaum said.
Limited
Resources
Banks that use
the more expensive programs can add Savvysoft’s program for specialized
options. It’s compatible with Renaissance, Infinity and CATS Software
Inc.’s programs, Tanenbaum said.
Even some banks
have limited resources for writing their own programs. Though Societe
Generale is one of the biggest banks in France, it’s a relatively
minor trader in the U.S. markets. It used Savvysoft’s new system as
part of a year-long test, as did other derivatives users including
Union Carbide Corp.
That saved months
of work for the bank, which would have had to write its own programs
otherwise, said Catherine Willis, a financial engineer at Societe
Generale in New York.
"We’re a small
group," Willis said, "so we can’t really afford to have a huge systems
group." |
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